The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Drives Aston Villa's Unlikely Championship Bid
Just eight weeks in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, the question was whether his displays were an indicator or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his winter coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have just won 10 in a row, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Few believed Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.