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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and recent strugglers improving in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

This is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of peers.

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