Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
